Twitter Twitter Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. In communities . Trump needs to drive up the score in Cobb, which provided more votes than any other county for Mitt Romney in 2012. In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. It abuts Clevelands Cuyahoga County to the east and went narrowly to Mitt Romney in 2012. Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. It came close to reflecting the statewide vote in 2012. [Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years. Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. How many of these counties voted less for the Republican party in 2020? 6. Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. Until this year. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. (Think about what it takes, and what is required for a county to always get the election right. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 105,097Republicans: 87,763Democrats: 77,383. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. Click here, for more. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. A switch county is our name for a county that happens to vote for the winning party whenever there is a change of parties, ignoring how they voted for the incumbent. We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.). Thank you for supporting our journalism. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? Suggest an improvement, report an issue, But both are worth watching. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. These counties' national bellwether status might not ring true in 2016, though, because Illinois is one of Obama's home states. In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. What does Terre Haute know about America 2016? You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. The pattern has become clear between the last two presidential elections and governor's race early results from rural counties show Republicans up, but Northern Virginia counties, especially Fairfax, have more than made up the difference. It requires a lot more than pure luck.). (Go to the bottom of the page. More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. 2. Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. Or, if you dont have enough time, how many of the top 10 switch counties, which overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2008 (with a percentage Democrat vote over 58% ! Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. But it's also not unprecedented. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. 11. Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. Yes, another Hillsborough! In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . Feel free to forward a link to your elected officials as well. Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. That's 14 in a row. (subject to censorship). In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. It will keep them entertained for hours, and you can tell them it is for a good cause. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. Racine County2016 primary winners: Sanders, Cruz, Latest voter registration totals: 113,599No party registration. With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! Most bellwether counties were slightly Democratic-leaning in 2008 and Republican leaning in 2012. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. Trump gave them hope. That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. 12. Here's why. In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. To make things more interesting we will only look at swing counties since the 2004 election. "When I came here in 1989, you couldn't be elected dog catcher if you weren't a Democrat," he says. Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. 7. Demographics (84) What, if anything, did we miss? Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. Their hopes are real. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. They simply vote on merit. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. Enter Donald Trump. So, even though they got it wrong in 2020, it is still worth figuring out how much they got it wrong by. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic.
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